Issue 57 - February 2020

Sea level rise to cause major economic impact in the absence of further climate action

By Thomas Schinko

Rising sea levels, a direct impact of the Earth’s warming climate, is intensifying coastal flooding. The findings of a new study show that the projected negative economy-wide effects of coastal flooding are already significant until 2050, but are then predicted to increase substantially towards the end of the century if no further climate action on mitigation and adaptation is taken.

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 by 175 parties, aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, the period 2010–2020 was the planet’s hottest decade on record and the long-term trend is upward. Sea level rise is one of the most severe impacts of climate change, with rising waters amplifying coastal floods, threatening coastal communities, infrastructure, and agriculture.

a landscape and sea

New IIASA-led research for the first time assessed the economy-wide effects of sea level rise globally and in particular in G20 countries when jointly taking into account different climate mitigation and adaptation assumptions, using three different macroeconomic models. In the study, authors compared two different climate policy scenarios – one achieving well below 2°C warming by the end of this century (basically in line with the Paris Agreement), and one overshooting this target – in combination with two different adaptation scenarios (no adaptation and full adaptation to sea level rise) and estimated GDP impacts due to coastal flooding in all scenario combinations for 2050 and 2100. The study is also innovative in terms of looking at G20 countries explicitly, that is, countries that are big emitters and at the same time affected by climate change. The analysis thus corroborates the need for action on both mitigation and adaptation.

“We found that up to 2050 the global GDP losses in both climate futures are significant and similar given the effects of climate change that we are already experiencing. However, by 2100, without further mitigation and adaptation and assuming continued sea level rise, projected annual global economy-wide losses can amount to more than 4%,” explains study lead author and IIASA Risk and Resilience Deputy Program Director Thomas Schinko. “With ambitious mitigation and adaptation, the model results show that this number can be reduced to below 0.5% of global GDP loss, despite the associated costs for adaptation measures and residual impacts. This confirms the importance and economic efficiency of adaptation in the long term: Making sure that coastal communities and their infrastructure are climate-resilient will affect economies across the globe much less than persistent climate impacts in the absence of climate action.”

According to study coauthor Laurent Drouet, a senior scientist at the RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, in terms of regional effects across the G20, the highest levels of annual GDP impacts in relative terms are projected for China. In 2050 and with no further adaptation, economic losses amount to 0.8-1.0%. Estimated GDP losses for India are slightly smaller (0.5-0.6%), followed by Canada (0.3-0.4%). Zoi Vrontisi, a senior researcher at the E3MLab of the National Technical University of Athens, highlighted that until 2050 the direct economic losses of sea level rise on a global level can still be balanced out by interregional trade and substitution effects in production processes at the macroeconomic level. However, after 2050 and up to 2100, the scale of economy-wide effects in G20 countries changes drastically.

China remains the country with the highest projected relative GDP loss if no further adaptation is undertaken, which is now a factor of ten higher than it was in 2050: According to the economic modeling undertaken, annual losses would amount to 9–10% in a well below 2°C scenario, and to 11-12% under a current mitigation policy scenario. Other regions with severe economy-wide damages by 2100 under no adaptation are Europe and Japan.

tide from the sea hits the seashore

Macroeconomic impacts are analogous to the direct damages of sea level rise. However, Andries Hof from PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, notes that this changes if stronger mitigation actions are undertaken and sea level rise adaptation efforts are strengthened. Similar to the global picture, all individual G20 countries could thereby limit the residual economy-wide impacts to below 1.0% of GDP if appropriate adaptation measures are taken. An important benefit of further mitigation efforts to be undertaken by G20 countries are strong reductions of impacts for the most vulnerable coastal countries across the globe. This effect will be further investigated in future research.

“The findings of this paper demonstrate that we need to think long term while acting swiftly. Macroeconomic impacts up to and beyond 2050 as a result of coastal flooding due to sea level rise – not taking into account any other climate-related impacts, such as drought – are severe and increasing. We, as a global society, need to further coordinate mitigation, adaptation, and climate resilient development, and consider where we build cities and situate important infrastructure,” concludes Schinko.

Reference

Schinko T, Drouet L, Vrontisi Z, Hof A, Hinkel J, Mochizuki J, Bosetti V, Fragkiadakis K, Van Vuuren D, Lincke D (2019). Economy-wide effects of coastal flooding due to sea level rise: A multi-model simultaneous treatment of mitigation, adaptation, and residual impacts. Environmental Research Communications DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab6368

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Related Topics:climate change News sea level rise

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ธรรมชาติไม่รู้สึก

มนุษย์ โฮโมเซเปียนส์

ชาดก เรื่องเล่า ศาสนา การเมือง ศิลปะ วัฒนธรรม

มนุษย์เราได้ถักร้อยสัญญะต่าง ๆ มากมาย มาคั่นกลางระหว่างธรรมขชาติกับความเป็นมนุษย์ ในตอนแรก มนุษย์เราอาจสร้างสัญญะขึ้นเพื่อช่วยเชื่อมร้อยระหว่างเรากับธรรมชาติ และเพื่อตอบคำถามว่าอาจมีสิ่งที่ยิ่งไปกว่าการมีชีวิต

เมื่อผ่านวันเวลา สิ่งที่เราถักทอกลับบดบังสายใยแรกเริ่มนั้นจนหมด เหลือเพียงรอยทางที่บอกใบ้ถึงที่มา ว่าเรามาจากไหน รอยทางเหล่านั้นจำนวนมากมาย แต่เลือนราง ได้ทิ้งสำคัญไว้ว่า

อะไรคือสิ่งสำคัญที่สุดต่อการมีอยู่ของสายพันธุ์เรา

หน้าที่ของเราในธรรมชาติคืออะไร และยังมีอยู่ไหม

หรือ

เราเหลือหน้าที่เพียงรับใช้เรื่องราวที่เราเชื่อและบูชา

an engraving printing — Colonization with knowledge

ในชุดผลงานนี้ ผมจึงนำเสนอฉากเกี่ยวเนื่องของมนุษย์และธรรมชาติ ผ่านหลายรอบทางที่คล้ายว่าจะนำเรากลับสู่สามัญ แสยานุภาพของโฮโมเซเปียนส์จะเจิดจรัสได้นานเพียงใดกัน หากไร้ซึ่งระบบนิเวศที่อุ้มชู้เราไว้ มีเพียงเราที่สร้างและทำลายล้าง ที่สามารถถูกสร้างและถูกทำลายล้าง

เราคือผู้ควบคุมที่ถูกดูดกลืน

เราคือผู้ปฏิวัติที่ไม่อาจพอทักษ์การปฏิวัติ

เราคือผู้ชนะที่ไม่อาจรักษาชัยชนะไว้ได้

ธรรมชาติไม่รู้สึกรู้สาอะไรกับเรา

ในนิทรรศการณ์ Nature Is Not Saddened เป็นการนำเสนอความสัมพันธ์ระหว่างมนุษย์และธรรมชาติผ่านสัญญะ ในบริบทที่ต่างออกไปเพื่อสะท้อนให้แง่มุมใหม่ๆของสายสัมพันธ์นี้ การนำเสนอศาตร์ต่างๆผ่านสัญญะที่เชื่อมรอยนำเรากลับไปหาธรรมชาติและรอยทางของเราในอดีต ผ่านเนื้อหาของ ตำนาน ชาดกเรื่องเล่า วัฒนธรรม ศิลปะ ประวัติศาสตร์ เปรียบเปรยกับวิถีทางในปัจจุบันของมนุษย์ การแตกกิ่งก้านของเนื้อหาที่แตกกระจายและเข้ายึดของความจริง แทนที่ควบคุมมันด้วยความหมาย จินตนาการของเรา ความคิดและความรู้ที่เป็นอุปกรณ์สำคัญในการเชื่อมโยงมนุษย์เข้าไว้ด้วยกัน มีผลกับธรรมชาติอย่างไร

จากความรู้สู่การลงมือทำ สู่งานศิลปะ

ในแรกเริ่มผมรู้จักธรรมชาติและความจริงผ่านประสบการณ์ที่ถูกส่งต่อผ่านหนังสือสะสมเรื่องราวและโลกทรรศ์ใหม่ๆ และความรักในความรู้นั้นนำพา จนผมได้มีโอกาสมาทำงานอนุรักษ์เผยแพร่ความรู้และความจริงถึงความสำคัญของธรรมชาติผ่านศิลปะ หากมองไปไกลกว่าชั่วชีวิตจะพบว่าเราต้องส่งต่อทุกสิ่งให้คนรุ่นต่อไป สำหรับผมพวกเค้าคือความหวังของสายพันธุ์และความรักต่อธรรมชาติที่เราปลูกไว้ ก็หวังว่ามันจะเติบโตต่อในคนรุ่นต่อไป

a group of photo of a man teaching children imprinting a picture

ในการทำงานศิลปะผมใช้เทคนิคwood engraving เป็นเทคนิคในการทำงานและมีการพัฒนาแม่พิมพ์จากไม้มาเป็นเรซิ่นเพื่อลดข้อจำกัดของเทคนิค การไปมาระหว่างป่ากับเมืองทำให้ผมเห็นความสัมพันธ์ของทั้งสองที่ แง่มุมนึงเราเป็นผู้ที่ต้องพึ่งพาทรัพยากรจากธรรมชาติเพื่อเลี้ยงเมือง และสิ่งที่ควรเกิดขึ้นคือการดูแลอนุรักษ์ที่มาของทรัพยากรของเรา แต่ทว่ามันเกิดขึ้นน้อย

a photo representing the differences between wooden mould and resin mould — Left: piece mould made from cut wood Right: a part of piece mould made from Resin

การเข้าป่ากระตุ้นผมให้คิดถึงอดีตของมนุษย์การดำรงอยู่อย่างมืดบอดและความอ่อนแอของเราลดทอนอัตตาความเชื่อว่าเรานั้นแข็งแกร่งที่สุดในห้วงโซ่นี้ ความรู้สึกและเรื่องราวที่ยากอธิบายในป่าเป็นแรงบันดาลใจในการสร้างฟอร์ม รูปทรง ผ่านเส้นการแกะออกมาเป็นหน้าตาของระบบนิเวศผ่านตำนาน เรื่องเล่าในท้องถิ่นและตะกอนความรู้สึกของผมที่มีต่อธรรมชาติ

การผสมผสานเรื่องราวที่คนทั่วๆไปรู้มาประกอบการหยิบยืมเนื้อหาและภาพมา เพราะหวังว่าผู้คนจะนำเอาความเข้าใจเดิม มาร่วมใช้ในบริบทใหม่ของเนื้อหาและภาพที่ผมหยิบมาใช้อธิบายออกมาเป็นนิทรรศการ Nature Is Not Saddened

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รายได้10เปอร์เซ็นจากการขายทั้งหมดผมจะนำไปมอบให้โครงการนกเงือก(Thailand hornbill research Foundation)และทุนการศึกษาสำหรับนักเรียนโรงเรียนในเครือข่ายอนุรักษ์และบุตรธิดาเจ้าหน้าที่ชื่อ ทุนสืบเจตนารักษ์ป่าห้วยขาแข้ง ในงานรำลึก30ปี สืบ นาคะเสถียร

wood engraved printing of a hornbill — Blood Ivory: 21 x 16 cm by Kao Chisanupol

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Issue 57 - February 2020

Gondwana Ecotours Announces 10-Day Tanzania Great Migration Camping Safari

Gondwana Ecotours is thrilled to announce a new 10-day camping safari in Tanzania. Guests will visit four national parks (Arusha, Tarangire, Ngorongoro Crater & Serengeti), get to know the Maasai Tribe, photograph amazing landscapes, spot the Big Five (lion, leopard, rhino, buffalo, and elephant), and camp under the stars. This is a unique trip full of authentic culture, wildlife viewing and photography opportunities. Tours are scheduled for July 13-22, 2020 and August 8-17, 2020 starting at $2,995 USD per person not including international flights. Each tour maxes out at 18 guests. For more information, visit Gondwana Ecotours at https://www.gondwanaecotours.com/tour/tanzania-camping-great-migration-safari/ or call 877.587.8479.

four giraffes are standing in the field back to back each other

“This is a once-in-a-lifetime safari with extraordinary wildlife viewing opportunities,” said Gondwana Ecotours Founder, Jared Sternberg. “One thing that makes our trip unique and more sustainable than most is that we pay Carbon Offsetting for each guest and donate to the Maasai Community Development Initiative on their behalf.”

A major highlight of this camping safari is visiting the Maasai, one of Africa’s most famous and historic tribes. Guests will sing and dance with members of the tribe and tour a traditional home. Another unforgettable moment is exploring the Ngorongoro Crater at sunrise before the crowds arrive. It is home to many lions and some of the last black rhinos in the world.

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“We will enjoy picturesque picnic lunches in the parks near hippo pools, giraffes, baobab trees and beautiful lakes,” said Sternberg. “This safari is full of amazing wildlife and culture, and offers an opportunity to witness one of the most spectacular mass migrations on the planet.”

What’s Included in the Tanzania Camping Safari Ecotour:

All accommodations and equipment (4 nights at a hotel, 5 nights camping)
All meals except for arrival and departure days
All national park entrance fees (Arusha, Tarangire, Ngorongoro Crater & Serengeti)
Unique activities with the Maasai tribe (dancing, singing, home tour and cultural exchange)
Guaranteed window-seat in a private Toyota Land Cruiser with a local guide/driver
Carbon Offsetting for each guest and donations to the Maasai Community Development Initiative
Chef-prepared meals and clean drinking water throughout the safari
All activities and excursions, including safaris and guided hikes
Airport pick-up and drop-off

Gondwana Ecotours logo

About Gondwana Ecotours: Gondwana Ecotours is committed to providing sustainable travel, maintaining an environmental and cultural focus, and offering the vacation of a lifetime. Tour the Amazon Rainforest with indigenous guides, encounter some of the world’s last remaining mountain gorillas in Rwanda, visit with the Maasai people of Tanzania, hike with grizzlies in Alaska, explore Cuba, and More…

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Issue 57 - February 2020

SEVENSEAS Travel Magazine – February 2020 – Issue 57

Cover of SEVENSEAS Travel Magazine February 2020

4 of the Best Historic Attractions in Charleston

One of the most beautiful destinations in the U.S., Charleston, South Carolina has so much to offer the thousands of visitors who pass through the area each month. The mild climate of the region makes it an ideal place to travel any time of the year—through the summer heat can be overwhelming at times. Read more…

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Go Mo Go Travel Blog: Afghanistan

Afghanistan had always been on my “list”. It was, in the early seventies, the gateway to Asia and an important stop on the legendary Silk Road. Images of crimson-stained rugs, rugged men in oversized turbans, and long conversations held in Dari or Pashto amid bustling green tea Tea Shops played in my mind, as I thought of what went on, as groups of people from Asia, Europe, and Africa met and traded in this mountainous land. Read more…

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Bangkok Art Exhibition: Nature Is Not Saddened by Kao Chisanuphol

In this exhibition, I present the scenes where humanity and nature walking through a pathway seemingly to bring us back to the ordinary. How long remain the homo sapiens without the ecosystem holding? Pride and ignorance are endless. Nature is not saddened. Human creates and destroys and vis versa (They can be created and destroyed). Read more…

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6 Ways That Dive Technology Can Enhance the Diving Experience

Divers have been exploring the immensity of the ocean since ancient times in Greece and Rome. Since then, there have been a growing number of advancements in technique, knowledge and technology that have made understanding the aquatic world more accessible and safe for all types of explorers. Read more…

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Turtles under threat: Ocean warming forcing leatherback turtles to travel further for food

New research tracking the migrations of leatherback turtles after leaving their nesting grounds in French Guiana shows that they must travel almost twice as far as groups previously observed to reach feeding grounds. Read more…

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Drones monitor the health of declining Australian sea lions

The Australian sea lion population has never recovered from the impact of the commercial sealing that occurred mainly in the 19th century. But the use of drones by University of Adelaide researchers to identify the reason for the latest decline could play a significant role in reversing the threatened species’ fortunes. Read more…

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Cover art by Clint McKoy, Kiawah Island, South Carolina

Does Shell Availability Matter?: Marine Protected Areas Impact on Invertebrates

Seashells are commonly picked up at beaches by children, collectors, and tourists. Little thought is put into collecting shells. Yet, shell loss on beaches can pose catastrophic effects to invertebrate organisms that live on and around beaches (Peura, Lovvorn, North, & Kolts, 2013). Invertebrate organisms utilize shells for protection. Read more…

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Behind-the-Scenes Seahorse Tour at Birch Aquarium

The Growing Up Seahorse tour immerses guests into the world of Birch Aquarium’s animal care team. Participants are first taken through seahorse exhibits to learn about the diversity and conservation status of these unique fish, then head behind the scenes to learn how Birch Aquarium’s experts care for and breed seahorses. Read more…

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Bobbit Worm – Photo taken in Lembeh at Indonesia – Jack’s February Underwater Photograph

You are not likely to come across this worm, the bobbit is not common and little is known about it. This worm has been observed in aquariums where it was probably introduced into the aquarium by hitch-hiking on coral. Living in the substrate, a bobbit, with its large appetite, can decimate all aquarium inhabitants unnoticed in little time. Read more…

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The Global Plastic Problem: How you can make a difference

The Global Plastic Problem – We’re global citizens of this planet. We and our stuff move around the planet and permeate the environment. Geologists term this epoch the “Anthropocene”. Our human footprint can be found in every terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem most obviously in the sedimentary record on beaches and in our aquatic systems. Read more…

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7 Surprising Facts You May Not Know About South Carolina

When people think of South Carolina, images of shrimp and grits, fried green tomatoes, Palmetto trees and college football games usually come to mind. However, this great Southern state has a rich history with quite a few interesting facts that take some people by surprise. Read more…

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Santiburi Celebrates Being Certified As a Carbon-Neutral Resort

Santiburi Koh Samui, the luxurious retreat on Koh Samui’s stunning north shore, has been officially certified as a carbon-neutral resort, reflecting its deep and lasting commitment to the environment. Read more…

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Sea level rise to cause a major economic impact in the absence of further climate action

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Professor: Save The World by Planting Trees

Australia is on fire. Temperatures are rising. Carbon emissions are increasing. What can just one person do that would be of any help? Ball State biology professor David LeBlanc has an answer: To counter greenhouse gases that are blamed for climate change, he says, plant trees on your property. Read more…

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Antarctic Extremes

The award-winning science series NOVA, produced for PBS by WGBH Boston, debuts an ambitious, multimedia experience taking viewers on an epic adventure to explore the dynamic history—and future—of ice at the Earth’s poles. Kicking off the initiative, PBS Digital Studios is launching a new science-focused YouTube channel, PBS Terra, with ANTARCTIC EXTREMES—an original NOVA digital series about discovering what it takes to do scientific research in Earth’s most remote natural laboratory. Read more…

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SEVENSEAS FEATURED TRAVEL

Below are a few of our favorite tour centers and operators. Be sure to mention SEVENSEAS Media for special rates and discounts when making your inquiry.

Susan Bruce Travel

We’ve been travelling, advising clients, and planning trips across the globe for over 30 years. We help you explore amazing places and people — from mountain sanctuaries in Bhutan to the jungles of Peru. Learn more…

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Oceanic Society Expeditions.

A selection of expeditions and volunteer vacations for our travellers that will further the mission to conserve marine wildlife and habitats. More info.

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Alelí Tours Puerto Rico

Alelí Tours is a small-scale ecotourism business located in La Parguera, southwest Puerto Rico. More info.

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Isla Mar Research Expeditions – Field Courses in Puerto Rico

A field course coordination company in Puerto Rico that specializes in organizing and hosting island ecology (marine/terrestrial) themed courses. More info.

Marine Megafauna Foundation

Our mission is to save threatened marine life using pioneering research, education, and sustainable conservation solutions, working towards a world where marine life and humans thrive together. Read more… More info.

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Bangkok Photo Tours.

We visit traditional sights but focus on markets, street art, and local food. All camera forward and environmentally sensitive. More info.

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Pangaea Ocean Sailing Expedition

Panex is opening up sailing expeditions for guest crew. This is an unique opportunity to go sailing, cross an ocean, and be a part of something bigger. More info.

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SEE Turtles

…protect endangered turtles throughout Latin America and the world by supporting community-based conservation efforts through ecotourism, education, and Billion Baby Turtles. More info.

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Scuba Junkie Dive Centers

A personal favorite from SEVENSEAS Media. Go to Sipadan, Mabul, Kapalai, Sibuan, Mantabuan, Mataking, and more. More info.

Ever dream of swimming with humpback whales? Now you can.

If you are interested in swimming with or photographing humpback whales Karim guides… More info.

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Loggerhead Marinelife Center.

Imagine roaming some of the world’s most beautiful ecosystems. Gorgeous vistas, affordable travel and amazing memories; immersing yourself in the sounds of nature. More info.

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Pete Oxford Expeditions.

We offer unique, small group expeditions for travelers and photographers to remote and pristine destinations and cultures around the world. More info.

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Alnitak Conservation in Action on Volunteer Expeditions

Alnitak is a grassroots marine science organization dedicated to the conservation of biodiversity in our oceans. From May through to October, we run expeditions to survey the rich waters in the Balearic Sea, inviting any ocean enthusiasts to join us on board. Our expeditions take place in the stunning Cabrera National Park and the Menorca Biosphere Reserve. Read more…

The FREE Weekly Conservation Post and Jobs List

Signing up for the free Weekly Newsletter & Jobs List will get you a round-up of upcoming events, webinars, meetings, reports, funding opportunities, photos of the week, and recent postings to the jobs list.

To sign up for our free subscription, please Click Here or email us Here.

Since 2004, SEVENSEAS Media has fostered an informal and non-partisan platform to promote understanding of key issues and challenges while building partnerships across an increasingly diverse group of marine conservation professionals and students.

Our mission is to promote communication and build partnerships across the global marine community and to identify and address gaps in the community’s work. SEVENSEAS Media achieves this through multimedia promotion and partnerships. The community consists of a diverse and growing group of participants, including non-governmental organizations, government agencies, foundations, bilateral and multilateral agencies, fellowship programs, independent consultants, and academia/students.

If you are interested in contributing or getting involved, email us Here.

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