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Issue 25 - Climate Issue

New research predicts the future of coral reefs under climate change

  • If current trends continue, severe bleaching will occur every year on 99% of the world’s coral reefs within this century
  • More ambitious emissions reductions may give reefs an average of 11 extra years before annual bleaching strikes
  • High-resolution predictions of annual coral bleaching can help prioritize reefs for conservation

New climate model projections of the world’s coral reefs reveal which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching, an event that poses the gravest threat to one of the Earth’s most important ecosystems.

These high-resolution projections, based on global climate models, predict when and where annual coral bleaching will occur. The projections show that reefs in Taiwan and around the Turks and Caicos archipelago will be among the world’s first to experience annual bleaching.

Other reefs, like those off the coast of Bahrain, in Chile and in French Polynesia, will be hit decades later, according to research recently published in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.

“These predictions are a treasure trove for those who are fighting to protect one of the world’s most magnificent and important ecosystems from the ravages of climate change,” said Erik Solheim, head of UN Environment.

“They allow conservationists and governments to prioritize the protection of reefs that may still have time to acclimatize to our warming seas. The projections show us where we still have time to act before it’s too late.”

If current trends continue and the world fails to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, then severe bleaching will occur every year on 99 per cent of the world’s reefs within the century, according to the study.

The Paris Agreement’s aspirational target of limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius provides a safer, but not an entirely safe space for coral reefs. Even if emission reductions exceed pledges made by countries to date under the Paris Agreement more than three quarters of the world’s coral reefs will bleach every year before 2070.

It takes at least 5 years for a reef to recover from a single bleaching event. “Bleaching that takes place every year will invariably cause major changes in the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems,” said study leader Dr. van Hooidonk of NOAA and the University of Miami. “Further, annual bleaching will greatly reduce the capacity of coral reefs to provide goods and services, such as fisheries and coastal protection, to human communities.”

The need to act is clear. Between 2014 and 2016, the world witnessed the longest global bleaching event ever recorded, which killed coral on an unprecedented scale. In 2016, bleaching hit 90 per cent of coral on the Great Barrier Reef and killed more than 20 per cent of the reef’s coral.

The new study shows that, on average, the world’s reefs will start suffering annual bleaching in 2043. About 5 per cent of them will be hit a decade or more earlier, while about 11 per cent will suffer annual bleaching a decade or more later than this date.

If emission reductions exceed pledges made by countries to date under the Paris Agreement, coral reefs would have another 11 years, on average, to adapt to warming seas before they are hit by annual bleaching.

If such emissions reductions become reality, many high and low latitude reefs in Australia, the South Pacific, India, Coral Triangle and the Florida Reef Tract will have at least 25 more years before annual bleaching occurs, buying time for conservation efforts. However, reefs near the equator will experience annual bleaching much sooner, even if emissions reductions pledges materialize.

“It is imperative that we take these predictions seriously and that, at the very minimum, we meet the targets of the Paris Agreement. Doing so will buy time for coral reefs and allow us to plan for the future and adapt to the present,” said Mr. Solheim.

Predicting when and where annual bleaching occurs will help policymakers and conservationists decide which reefs to prioritize. “Reefs that will suffer annual bleaching later – known as climate “refugia” – are top priorities because they have more time to respond positively to efforts that seek to reduce bleaching vulnerability”, said Dr. van Hooidonk. Such efforts include reducing land-based pollution, halting overfishing and preventing damage from tourism.

Coral reefs, which are already under threat from overfishing and tourism, are especially vulnerable to climate change because they are easily affected by warm water. When sea temperatures rise, the algae that give coral its bright colours leave their host, causing it to look white, hence the term ‘coral bleaching’. The loss of algae, which provide coral with much of its energy, make corals vulnerable to starvation and disease.

Known as the world’s underwater cities, coral reefs provide hundreds of millions of people with food, income and coastal protection. They are home to at least one quarter of all marine life and they generate an estimated $375 billion per year from fisheries, tourism and coastal protection.

“We are going to need to be much more innovative and proactive if we want to see coral reefs thrive into the next century,” said World Wildlife Fund (WWF) lead marine scientist and study co-author Dr. Gabby Ahmadia.

“Conventional conservation is not going to cut it against the impacts of climate change. We need to embrace the new climate reality to guide efforts to save our oceans”.

About the study
Support for the study, entitled “Local-scale projections of coral reef futures and implications of the Paris Agreement”, was provided by UN Environment, the World Wildlife Fund, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coral Reef Conservation Programme, the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory and the National Marine Fisheries Service via the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, US Geological Survey via the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center, Total Foundation, and US National Fish and Wildlife Foundation. The study was led by Dr. Ruben van Hooidonk and Dr. Jeffrey Maynard.

 

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Issue 25 - Climate Issue

Issue 25 – Special Edition: Climate – June 2017

Table of Contents:

1. Letter from the Guest Editor – June Special Climate Change Edition. The realities of today show that the battle against climate change is an ongoing one that is just beginning…

 2. New research predicts the future of coral reefs under climate change. New climate model projections of the world’s coral reefs reveal which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching, an event that poses the gravest threat…

 3. Telling the Stories of South Florida’s Battle with Sea Level Rise. A hotbed of rapid environmental change due to rising seas, Miami is also becoming a place of innovative environmental communication for diverse communities.

 4. Bleaching in Fiji: The Impacts of El Niño 2015.  It’s April 2016, just off the coast of Beqa – a small island to the south of Fiji’s main island Viti Levu. Amanda and myself are currently living on the beautiful…

 5. Connect with the Global Marine Community. In a nutshell, the Global Marine Community is a free interactive resource that gives you access to a weekly email detailing a round-up of events and opportunities in ocean conservation.

 6. Watercolor Artist, Sheila Horne. Artists have long been inspired by nature, and their contribution to awareness and advocacy of environmental issues cannot be understated. Mrs. Horne’s work…

 7. Architecture as Adaptation. As global warming and rising sea levels march forward at an increasing pace, humankind and society have no further option but to confront these changes head-on in how we live our lives…

8. Climate Change Misconceptions & What You Can Do. It’s in the news. It’s science. It’s somewhat controversial. While we’re certain that Earth’s climate

 9. Interview: Melissa White, Executive Director of Key Biscayne Community Foundation.  Key Biscayne is particularly vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise. Flooding already occurs..

10. More Bang for the Buck: Record New Renewable Power Capacity Added at Lower Cost. As the cost of clean technology continues to fall, the world added record levels of renewable energy capacity in 2016…

11. Planning for Climate Change & Rising Sea Levels: An Example from Boston.  The City of Boston convened a group of climate scientists and experts to determine a consensus on what the effects of climate change will be for…

12. Interested in advertising, contributing an article, or becoming a donor?.  26 Issues, readership in 174 countries, over 14,000 subscribers, 15,000 monthly visitors…and growing 

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Issue 25 - Climate Issue

UN Environment Launches Young Champions of the Earth Competition

 

 

On International Mother Earth Day, the United Nations Environment Programme launched Young Champions of the Earth, a new initiative to spot young, talented people between the ages of 18 and 30 and support their inspiring ideas to save the environment.

Young Champions of the Earth is a global stage for young people to showcase technological inventions and innovative business models that improve our planet’s health. The initiative aims to counter the negative discourse on the environment and inspire the next generation of environmental leaders.

Young Champions of the Earth is sponsored by Covestro, one of the world’s leading polymer companies and a strong proponent of innovation for environmental sustainability.

Each year, six young people – one from each of UN Environment’s global regions – will be named Young Champions of the Earth. These winners will each receive US$15,000 in seed funding as well as intensive training and tailored mentoring to help bring their big environmental ideas to life.

The winners will be selected by a global jury that includes UN Environment Executive Director Erik Solheim and Covestro CEO Patrick Thomas. Winners will be invited to attend the Champions of the Earth Gala Dinner, to be held in Nairobi in December 2017.

The application period opened on 22 April and will close on 18 June.

UN Environment Executive Director Erik Solheim said: “As I’ve seen time and again, when young people are given opportunities and support, they can be powerful catalysts for change. It is our hope that Young Champions of the Earth will inspire thousands of young people around the world to develop innovative ways to tackle the environmental issues that matter to them.”

Covestro CEO Patrick Thomas said: “I am delighted to support UN Environment on this excellent initiative. Sustainable thinking and acting is critical in preserving our planet and improving the safety and quality of millions of people.

“Covestro seeks to contribute to this goal with products and technologies that benefit society and reduce the impact on the environment. This is the basis of our vision ‘To make the world a brighter place’ – and Young Champions invites the enthusiastic participation of all who care for our future.”

For more information, please visit www.unep.org/youngchampions

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Issue 25 - Climate Issue

Planning for Climate Change & Rising Sea Levels: An Example from Boston

Austin Horne

 

 

With climate change impacts already occurring in many parts of the Eastern U.S. Coast, citizens in many major metropolitan areas are becoming intimately aware of the dangers that climate change-induced sea level rise poses to their communities. According to recent peer-reviewed research, heavily-populated, low-lying coastal areas in New England are vulnerable to tidal flooding as sea levels rise due to climate change. What’s more, some of Boston’s most recognizable neighborhoods like Back Bay, Downtown, the South End, and Logan Airport-adjacent East Boston are among the areas with the greatest future impact from this flooding. Needless to say, significant, increasing, and persistent flooding in all areas of the City is a major concern for City officials. As a response to the potential effects of climate change, the City of Boston has unveiled one of the most comprehensive and detailed climate impact studies to date for their local metropolitan region. While the plan concludes that a reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is the most effective way to mitigate climate change, municipalities like Boston have the ability to adapt to climate change in ways that protect their citizens. Released in December of 2016, The Climate Ready Boston report can truly be used as a model for other cities’ efforts to combat the effects of climate change.

In the beginning of the project, The City of Boston convened a group of climate scientists and experts to determine a consensus on what the effects of climate change will be for the Coastal Massachusetts area. The importance of using the latest scientific information in climate change plans should not be taken for granted and cannot be understated; furthermore, Boston’s location as an educational center with some of the world’s top universities and research centers makes it an ideal candidate to utilize this vital local resource. Using the region’s scientific expertise along with international research and ideas, the City framed its report around five key principles:

1. Generate multiple benefits where possible
2. Incorporate local involvement in design and decision-making
3. Create layers of protection by working at multiple scales (multiple, independent lines of defense that work in coordination with one another)
4. Design in flexibility and adaptability (to account for continually changing conditions as well as uncertainty in projections)
5. Leverage efforts in conjunction with building cycles (what actions, such as road repaving, are scheduled to be done already?)

These principles are aligned with best-practice guidelines for climate change adaptations, aiming to provide a layered, flexible approach that results in strong, resilient protections for City citizens. These principles also encourage working efficiently within existing City plans and Emergency Preparedness frameworks, which speeds up the process of implementation and minimizes the financial burden on local taxpayers.

One of the most groundbreaking approaches in the report, however, is its focus on community outreach and involvement. The report encourages extensive information sharing for, and input from, City citizens and local advocacy groups. As with any climate impact & adaptation assessment, the ultimate goal is to produce the best outcomes for impacted citizens. Citizen awareness, input, and, ultimately, buy-in are the most crucial aspects of this strategy and can make the difference between a successful plan and one that is not. Placing an emphasis on public outreach and involvement increases the plan’s on-the-ground knowledge that only community leaders can provide, such as critical local resilience opportunities and generating ideas for solving multiple challenges at once in their communities. All of this leads to increased community support for the plan’s implementation and long-term maintenance.

Of particular note is the City of Boston’s efforts to aim adaptation and resilience efforts toward its citizens who need it most. Older citizens, children, people with disabilities, people with limited English proficiency, and other groups may not have access to helpful information or economic resources that can help protect themselves and their families from the effects of climate change and rising sea levels. Efforts to reach these populations are a targeted effort of the Climate Ready Boston report, and can enhance protection for Boston’s most vulnerable communities. Also of note is the plan’s proposal of work programs, which can provide valuable job opportunities for unemployed citizens in encouraging climate resiliency; installation and maintenance of green infrastructure, performing property resilience audits, and resilience retrofitting are among the opportunities available for Boston citizens under the plan’s guidelines. Additionally, prioritizing the use of minority- and women- owned businesses is a component of the plan that can benefit smaller enterprises not as likely to be involved in this type of work.

All of these components speak to a remarkably comprehensive, well-thought-out plan that not only identifies the specific impacts Boston will face in the coming decades, but also uses the latest science and in-depth local knowledge to target responses to the organizations and communities where it is best suited. The result is a multi-faceted, appropriately-targeted approach that includes many different stakeholders from around the City and aims to serve all citizens effectively. There is certainly no one-size-fits-all approach to climate change adaptation, and the Climate Ready Boston 2016 report serves this notion well. Its incorporation of peer reviewed scientific research and local information leads to a climate plan that is remarkably up-to-date, holistic, and targeted for its population. The report leaves Boston better prepared to deal with this increasingly severe situation, and can serve as a model for other municipalities across the United States that are just learning to deal with climate change and sea level rise.

For more information, please visit https://www.boston.gov/departments/environment/climate-ready-boston

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